The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued an area forecast discussion detailing weather conditions for Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania through the end of the week, with a ridge expected to form today before a cold front sweeps through on Wednesday, followed by a brief period of lake effect snow and below-normal temperatures over the weekend.
The latest National Weather Service Cleveland forecast predicts temperatures in the lower to mid-40s today. meanwhile, “the daytime warming will be limited via lingering low-level CAA behind the recent cold front passage.”
A surface low is expected to form south of the cold front, with precipitation starting as light snow or freezing rain mix and quickly shifting to plain rain. However, forecast confidence is poor at this stage due to some variables that could cause precipitation to begin as plain rain as a result of warm air advection.
By Wednesday, precipitation in most forms of rain is expected due to moist isentropic ascent and frontogenetical convergence associated with the trough axis aloft, despite an onset that may include a brief period of light snow or freezing rain in the Northeast of Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania.
On Wednesday, the prevailing precipitation will be rain, but “a very brief period of light snow/freezing rain may impact interior portions of NE OH and NW PA shortly after daybreak.
Aviators will face tough conditions, with “periodic MVFR ceilings expected throughout the TAF period, especially over and near Lake Erie.” However, precipitation may not arrive at TAF locations until after the early hours of Wednesday, when it could begin as a mix before shifting to predominantly rain due to higher surface and aloft temperatures, according to the forecast discussion.
Meanwhile, “Small Craft Advisories remain in effect east of the Islands due to west/southwest winds to 15 to 30 knots over the lake” with winds expected to subside progressively through early this evening. However, winds on the lake are forecast to rise again Wednesday night and Thursday morning.
Looking ahead to the weekend, a colder air mass will settle in the area, bringing well below normal temperatures in the 20s for highs and teens for lows, with a dry weather outlook favored from Sunday into Monday, although the potential for periodic lake effect snow showers will persist on Saturday; this according to the long-term outlook from the National Weather Service, suggesting conditions will be favorable for periodic lake effect snow showers Saturday with precipitation
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