Tropical development in the Atlantic is becoming less likely as a cluster of thunderstorms east of the Lesser Antilles moves westward; however, the possibility of this area becoming the next tropical depression or storm is low.
The disorganised tropical wave is located in the Atlantic Ocean, more than 500 miles east of Barbados. Winds can reach 40 mph in a limited area of thunderstorms around the wave axis.
Conditions are slightly favourable for further development in the next days, as this wave advances westward at 10 mph. However, beyond that timeframe, the thunderstorms will move into a less favourable environment for development. As a result, the likelihood of this disturbance becoming more than a rainmaker is minimal for the time being. This is not a threat to the US.
It will follow a westward route along the southern edge of the Bermuda High. The tropical wave will make its way to the Caribbean on Thursday.
Wind shear is likely to rise as it approaches the Caribbean, making it more difficult to create dangerous conditions and intensifying them.
However, the islands affected by this disturbance are likely to receive several inches of rain. Swells and rip currents are forecast to increase near the Lesser Antilles later this week. Because the wave is less in size, these impacts may be limited.
Computer models do not predict much prolonged intensification near the islands, thus wind may not pose a significant concern there. We’ll keep an eye on this.
The next tropical storm will be called “Dexter.”
Tropical activity in the southern Atlantic increases significantly from late July to early August.
This is because sandy, dry Saharan air, one of the Atlantic’s major limiting factors, often disperses, allowing tropical waves to form tall thunderstorms. These thunderstorms promote a healthier system, which may eventually contribute to the creation of a tropical depression or storm.
At the same time, water temperatures are frequently nearing their yearly peak, and wind shear is often diminishing.
