According to the National Hurricane Center’s July 25 update, the low-pressure system that has brought rain and thunderstorms to Florida in recent days is expected to move out of the Gulf and inland over southeastern Texas or western Louisiana by the weekend, effectively ending any chances for further development.
“Today will be the last day of widespread heavy rainfall across the Gulf Coast,” National Weather Service meteorologist Mussie Kebede stated. “Troughing along the coast has provided a lifting mechanism for storm development/organization in recent days, but it should subside as an upper ridge in the area strengthens.”
“1-3 inches more rain are expected from the Florida panhandle to the central Texas coast by Sunday morning. Fortunately, the risk of flash floods is limited due to modest rain rates, robust soils, and efficient runoff mechanisms,” the forecaster stated.
AccuWeather tropical experts are also watching for a low likelihood of tropical development in the open Atlantic later next week, which could bring rain and wind to the Lesser Antilles, forecasts said.
However, a slow start to the season does not rule out the possibility of thunderstorms. Dr. Ryan Truchelut of WeatherTiger predicts continued tropical activity in our future.
“My guess is the first half of the season will continue to be dominated by an unfavorable environment and fewer storms,” Truchelut told the newspaper. Starting in mid-September, the current warming trend in the Tropical Atlantic and tilt back towards La Niña is anticipated to gather strength, potentially leading in a second half of the season that clocks far above-average.
The NHC is now watching four tropical waves heading westward across the Atlantic: one near the Lesser Antilles, one in the open Atlantic, a third off the coast of Africa, and a fresh one in the Caribbean.
It’s still scorching outside. Heat index levels (or “real feel” temperatures) are forecast to reach 100-107 in various sections of the state, but no heat advisories are in effect today. However, the extraordinary heat and humidity that has plagued the country over the last week will persist until early next week, according to Labede, with storms expected to build across the Southeast and Mid-South this weekend.
The next named storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will be Dexter.
Historically, the fourth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season arrives on August 15. The final two named storms of the season, Barry and Chantal, formed earlier than usual.
Here’s the most recent tropical advisory from the National Hurricane Center as of 2 p.m. July 25:
