As of this morning, the Cleveland-based National Weather Service has revised its forecast for Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, highlighting a change in the region’s weather patterns. Today, a developing surface low off the New England Coast is predicted to merge with low pressure over the eastern Great Lakes, according to the NWS Area Forecast Discussion. Through Saturday, a surface trough is expected to move across the eastern Great Lakes, and by Sunday, high pressure is expected to move into the Ohio Valley. This won’t last long, though, as by Monday and Tuesday, another strong low-pressure system is expected to hit the area.
Parts of Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania have stopped receiving lake effect snow showers. The National Weather Service has made just minor prediction adjustments and expects “no changes to the overall forecast or weather impacts that are expected today into this evening.” Later this morning, the region will gradually warm into the lower to middle 40s as the winds change from southwest to northwest, turning the last of the snow showers into rain showers that move from north to south.
The weather pattern has caused a low-pressure system to intensify close to the New England coast, which will result in stronger winds throughout the night. Through Saturday, this weather shift is predicted to produce lake effect rain showers over Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania as a result of moisture-laden north-northwesterly flow. Warmer temperatures mean that there won’t be any snowy precipitation, but there might still be heavy rain showers in some places, especially later today and into the night. The National Weather Service stated that through Saturday, the average QPF for the snowbelt region of NEOH and NWPA would probably reach 1.0″ to isolated 1.5″ of precipitation.
The NWS predicts that weather impacts connected to aviation will begin this morning, with low-end MVFR circumstances initially followed by IFR conditions. Pilots should prepare for less than ideal circumstances today, especially in Northeast Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, as ceilings are expected to fall below 1000 feet between 15 and 18 z. “These showers as well as misty conditions will continue this afternoon into overnight with reduction to visibility between 2sm and 5sm for much of the TAF period across NEOH and NWPA,” the National Weather Service’s forecast said. Significantly, strong northwest winds are predicted to significantly increase in strength later today, with possible gusts near the lakeshore of up to 35 knots.
With a Gale Watch in place for the central basin, where northwest winds may reach up to 30 knots with notable wave heights, marine conditions will also be challenging. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the eastern and western basins. After this, winds are expected to decrease on Saturday and then turn southwest on Sunday and Monday. The marine community should brace for a harsh change in weather conditions due to the predicted cold solid front that is expected to move in late Monday.
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