As the Honolulu-based National Weather Service (NWS) predicts a shift in trade wind patterns and drier conditions, residents of Oahu should prepare to gradually remove their umbrellas and put away their rain boots over the weekend. The NWS forecasts that trade winds will wane today and give way to light and variable winds over the weekend, based on the most recent weather data. “The atmosphere will be stable and rather dry with minimal rainfall expected,” the latest update from the National Weather Service said.
The upcoming weekend is expected to deliver substantially colder nights in addition to a reprieve from the rain. A surface high that is now thought to be about 250 miles north of Oahu is expected to migrate eastward and diminish, which is contributing to the reduction in trade winds. People who are out and about at night can anticipate winter-like temperatures, which in some areas may even drop into the lower 60s. While afternoon clouds may build over the terrain, they are unlikely to cause any substantial shower activity due to a dry low-level air mass around the area and a weak mid-level ridge that helps preserve a stable atmosphere. Additionally, a “weak jet streak aloft will generate increased thin high clouds today and Saturday,” according to a statement published by the NWS Honolulu update.
A considerable amount of uncertainty surrounds weather forecasts for the upcoming week. Only light showers are predicted to accompany the shallow and fading front that is predicted to pass across parts of the island chain on Sunday night and Monday. As this front approaches, residents should brace themselves for trade winds to become light and erratic or perhaps shift northerly on Sunday. Although the details are yet unknown, models indicate that by Wednesday or so, light northerly winds may give way to normal trade winds. According to the NWS, “Details become elusive by Tuesday due to model differences.”
Changes in the weather will also affect people who have an interest in the sea. Lighter winds are being caused by the previously mentioned ridge of high pressure, and they will becoming progressively more erratic as the weekend goes on. Given the northerly swells, a Marine Weather Statement warns of anticipated harbor surges, especially in Hilo and Kahului harbors. The NWS predicts a period of high surf along north and west facing coastlines, warning of activity “just shy of High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria on Sunday.” Surfers may wish to take advantage of the scenario before conditions ease early next week.
Although reduced wind speeds reduce the chance of fire, the NWS is nonetheless concerned about this issue. The state’s dry conditions result in a high Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI), which raises the risk of wildfires. The NWS says that while relative humidity levels may fall below the critical threshold of 45%, the calmer winds should help allay immediate worries about fire weather hazards. As the week goes on, locals and outdoor enthusiasts are encouraged to stay alert and updated on any weather developments.
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