BURLINGTON, VT – Every winter, Burlington braces for brutal cold, fierce winds, and piles of snow. It’s part of life in Vermont, where residents are used to bundling up and tackling the winter head-on. But this year, the Old Farmer’s Almanac has some interesting news: the forecast suggests winter might be a bit kinder than usual, giving everyone a break from the relentless chill.
How the Almanac Predicts Winter
The Old Farmer’s Almanac takes a different approach from your typical short-term forecast. Instead of focusing on daily weather, it examines long-term trends, analyzing patterns that shape entire seasons.
Their predictions rely on a combination of old-school techniques and modern science, focusing on three main areas:
- Solar Science: Tracking sunspots and solar activity.
- Climatology: Reviewing historical and current weather patterns.
- Meteorology: Studying the atmosphere’s behavior.
By combining solar activity cycles with weather data from 1991 to 2020, the Almanac offers insights into what lies ahead.
Warmer Days Are Coming
For those tired of the bitter cold, there’s good news. This winter, temperatures in Burlington are expected to trend warmer than average. While the freezing temps aren’t going anywhere entirely, the season should feel a bit less punishing.
In particular, January might be noticeably milder, with forecasts showing temperatures about 4°F higher than normal. That said, the cold will make an appearance, with the frostiest days expected to arrive mid-December and late February.
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Will There Still Be Snow?
Winter in Vermont wouldn’t be the same without snow—and yes, it’s still on the way. While Burlington will see plenty of snow, the Almanac hints at a slight decrease in total accumulation. Expect snowfall to dip around 1 to 1.5% below the usual average.
The heaviest snowfall will likely come during early December, mid-February, and early March. Even though snowstorms might not be as severe as in past years, locals shouldn’t stash their shovels or snow boots just yet.
What’s Shaping This Winter’s Forecast?
One key factor is Solar Cycle 25, currently at its peak, which tends to correlate with warmer temperatures. However, the connection between solar activity and climate has weakened somewhat in recent years, leaving some uncertainty about how much of an impact this will have.
Additionally, ocean patterns like El Niño and La Niña are important players. While a neutral phase is expected, there’s a chance La Niña could make a return, bringing its own influence to Vermont’s weather. The Almanac is also keeping an eye on shifting conditions in both the Atlantic and Pacific, which could impact storms and temperatures throughout the season.
What to Expect and How to Prepare
Although this winter may feel milder, it’s still important to be ready for cold weather. The slightly warmer temperatures could mean more opportunities for outdoor fun and fewer heating expenses, but winter always finds ways to challenge us.
With snow totals dipping just below average and temperatures looking warmer, this could be a welcome change for many. Just remember, Vermont winters are still unpredictable—so it’s best to keep your winter gear handy and stay prepared for whatever comes your way.
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