There Are Two Swing States Where a Little More than Half of Black People Support Biden

In a recent poll conducted by USA TODAY/Suffolk University, it was revealed that slightly over half of Black voters in Pennsylvania and Michigan express support for President Biden in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup. This demographic, crucial for electoral success, shows a nuanced shift in voting patterns compared to the 2020 presidential election, where Biden received overwhelming support.

According to the poll results, 56.2% of surveyed Black voters in Pennsylvania and 54.4% in Michigan would vote for Biden today. This marks a significant decline from the 92% support Biden secured from Black voters in 2020 exit polls, reflecting changing sentiments and challenges ahead for his reelection campaign.

The survey, conducted from June 9-13, 2024, included 500 Black voters from each state, offering insights into the evolving political landscape among a critical voting bloc. Beyond the headline figures, the poll also highlighted that a substantial portion of 2020 Biden supporters are now considering alternatives.

In Pennsylvania, for example, 16.4% of respondents favor third-party candidates such as independents Cornel West and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In Michigan, similar trends show support for alternative candidates like these.

David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, emphasized the strategic implications for Biden’s campaign. He noted the complexity of retaining existing support while appealing to undecided and third-party-leaning voters, underscoring the fluid nature of voter preferences and the competitive environment in swing states.

Paleologos pointed out that Biden continues to enjoy strong initial support among Black voters, with a significant percentage placing him as either their first or second choice. In Michigan, for instance, 54% of respondents support Biden, while an additional 45% listed him as their second choice. This dual-level support indicates a broad base of potential backing but also highlights the need to maintain voter enthusiasm and engagement over the electoral cycle.

The poll’s findings come amidst intensified efforts by both Biden’s campaign and political opponents to mobilize and appeal to Black voters, particularly Black men, who show varied preferences compared to Black women.

In Pennsylvania, 16% of surveyed Black men expressed support for former President Donald Trump, doubling the support among Black women at 6%. Similarly, in Michigan, 22% of Black men favor Trump, compared to 9% of Black women.

As the 2024 election approaches, the survey underscores the pivotal role of Black voters in determining electoral outcomes in critical swing states. Biden’s ability to consolidate support among Black voters while navigating challenges from alternative candidates and retaining historically high levels of voter turnout will be crucial in shaping the electoral landscape.

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The poll, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, provides a snapshot of current political dynamics but also signals the ongoing evolution and strategic considerations within Biden’s reelection campaign.

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