President Biden’s influence in Virginia seems to be weakening, which is concerning for Democrats who were previously confident in their position in the state. Democrats had been winning every presidential election in Virginia since former President Obama in 2008.
A recent survey conducted by Roanoke College revealed that Biden and former President Trump are tied at 42 percent each in Virginia. In recent weeks, several polls have indicated that Biden is slightly ahead. According to the Decision Desk HQ polling average, Biden is currently leading Trump with 44.1 percent compared to 43.1 percent.
However, this is a big change from 2020, when Biden easily won the state. It suggests that Democrats might face a tough challenge this fall in Virginia, a state that Biden cannot afford to lose.
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“Biden is not performing as well as he did in 2020, when he won Virginia by a 10 percent margin.” “But he’s likely winning by a small margin right now,” said Larry Sabato, who is the director of the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
“If Virginia is even close in the fall, it’s a bad sign for Biden because Virginia is more Democratic than many of the states that could go either way.”
Sabato mentioned that several things could cause changes in the state, such as Trump being found guilty in his New York hush money trial and the upcoming first debate between the two candidates later this month.
The Democratic Party’s strong control over the Washington suburbs in Northern Virginia has been a key factor in their ability to maintain control of Virginia in recent elections. Four years ago, Biden won Virginia by almost 500,000 votes, and in 2016, Hillary Clinton won by 5 points against Trump.
Experts point out that although the state is not one of the most important swing states, it does have the possibility of being a close race.
“It’s not quite among the top battle grounds, but it’s very close,” said Zack Roday, a GOP strategist based in Virginia.
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In 2021, the Republican party had significant successes. Governor Glenn Youngkin, who is a Republican, won the governor’s race. Additionally, the majority in the House of Delegates shifted back to the Republican party.
However, starting in 2021, Virginia Democrats have made a comeback by winning several special elections and regaining complete control of the General Assembly in 2023.
Tucker Martin, a Republican strategist from Virginia, said that he doesn’t think the state is likely to vote for the GOP in the presidential election. He believes that the close polling numbers actually show that Joe Biden is not a strong candidate.
“According to Martin, Biden is likely to win Virginia because the state’s population centers tend to support Democrats and their policies,” said Martin. “I don’t think they should feel reassured by that, because if they are depending on political gravity to win states like Virginia, they will struggle in the battleground states.”
“If Biden has the same level of support at 42% in Virginia, then it’s likely that he has less support in Wisconsin, Nevada, and Michigan,” he added.
The Trump campaign argues that Biden is not only weak in Virginia and the usual battleground states, but also in historically Democratic strongholds like Minnesota and New Jersey.
“Joe Biden is seen as weak, and the Democratic party is in a state of confusion. President Trump is doing very well in states that are usually competitive, and even states that typically vote for Democrats, like Minnesota, Virginia, and New Jersey, are now uncertain,” said Karoline Leavitt, a spokesperson for the Trump campaign. “President Trump is actively promoting a successful message and expanding his following on a daily basis.” Joe Biden’s campaign should be very afraid.
Earlier this month, Chris LaCivita, a senior adviser for the Trump campaign, told NBC News that Trump has a significant chance to gain support in Virginia and Minnesota.
However, some Republicans are doubtful. They mention that Trump received slightly less than 44 percent of the vote in Virginia in 2020 and slightly more than 44 percent in 2016. This suggests that there is a limit to the amount of support he can receive.
“The important number is that he is tied at 42,” Martin said, talking about the Roanoke College poll. “I don’t think Trump’s numbers are strong until you see a poll that has him at around 47 or 46 percent.” But once again, this is not a condition that they must possess.
Biden will be raising money on June 18 in Virginia. He will be joined by former President Clinton, which will add more excitement to the event for big donors. The fundraiser will be organized by Terry McAuliffe, the former Governor of Virginia who lost to Youngkin. It will take place in the suburbs of Washington D.C., in Virginia.
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